06.01.25 - 10.01.25
Results of the previous week
| VIX +19.31% | NG +11.51% | PA +5.48% |
COCOA -5.52% | NQ -4.01% | AUDUSD -1.63% |
Last week, US indices were down because employment data from ADP came in lower than expected and due to the reaction to the US Federal Reserve's meeting minutes. The document is missing clear signs about whether the Fed will continue its quantitative easing. Another factor of uncertainty is Donald Trump's upcoming inauguration.
Amid expectations that the Fed will pause its interest rate cuts, the dollar strengthened against most other currencies. Meanwhile, increasing geopolitical tension has led to an increase in demand for gold, the price of which has risen even despite the dollar's strengthening.
Brent crude oil prices rose to $79.51 per barrel. Two factors affected this: the decrease in US oil reserves per the Department of Energy's data (reserves in Cushing, Oklahoma, dropped to the lowest level since 2014) and the increase in demand due to a sharp drop in temperatures.
Key events of the current week
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 15.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Bank of England's interest rate cuts in 2024 stimulated the British economy and increased growth rates year-over-year. Positive movement for one of the key indicators allows the regulator to hold off from making new quantitative easing measures. Global analysts expect inflation to remain above the Bank of England's target rate of 2%. This is good news for the British pound. Against this backdrop, the GBP/USD pair could make an upward correction to 1.2400. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 15.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation continues to rise. Global analysts expect it to increase during the reporting period. This movement for the indicator confirms market expectations about the Federal Reserve's future monetary policy moves. The regulator announced that it will act in accordance with incoming data. The US economy is showing signs of stability, which allows the regulator to halt interest rate cuts. This is favourable for the dollar but negative for gold, which is denominated in it. Gold (XAU/USD) may, therefore, resume its downward movement to $2625.00. | |||||
TThe US. Retail sales | DATE 16.01 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Retail sales reflect changes in consumer activity in the country. Global analysts expect this indicator to rise during the reporting period. This is good news for the United States' service-orientated economy. Stable economic conditions create the conditions for the Fed to pause interest rate cuts. This is favourable for the dollar but bad news for other currencies, such as the euro. In this scenario, EUR/USD may drop to 1.0100. | |||||
