20.05.24 - 24.05.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA +12.72 | COIN +5.41% | NG +1.31% |
HG -6.76% | BRN -1.94% | TF -1.61% |
Last week, US stock indices began a downward correction. They came under pressure after the release of the US Federal Reserve's latest meeting minutes. Representatives of the regulator noted that there has been no progress towards the 2% inflation target in recent months. At the same time, Federal Open Market Committee members mentioned their willingness to tighten monetary policy further if necessary.
The US dollar rose most of the week against its major opponents amid a possible continuation of the Fed's aggressive monetary policy. The only exception was the British pound, which was influenced by inflation data. The core consumer price index, which does not take into account such volatile components as energy and food prices, came in significantly higher at 3.9% versus the forecast of 3.6%. Evidence of inflation remaining high will prevent the Bank of England from going for a rate cut anytime soon.
Brent crude oil prices declined to $80.50 per barrel for the first time since February 2024. The energy resource is experiencing pressure due to concerns that the US Federal Reserve will keep its key interest rate high for an extended period. Another negative factor was the US oil inventories report showing that reserves had seen an increase of 2.5 million barrels against a forecasted decrease of 3.1 million barrels.
Key events of the current week
The US. CB Consumer Confidence Index | DATE 28.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Consumer confidence in the US has been declining for the past four months. This indicates that Americans are disappointed with the current state of the economy and aren't too optimistic about its prospects. Falling consumer confidence is having a negative impact on key indicators such as retail sales. Global analytical agencies predict that consumer confidence will further decline. The deterioration of macroeconomic indicators is unfavourable for the US dollar, as it forces the US Federal Reserve to switch to monetary policy easing. In this context, USD/JPY may continue to drop to around 155.40. | |||||
The US. GDP growth rate | DATE 30.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
For a while now, the US economy has successfully resisted negative factors such as rising energy prices, changing supply chains and a high US Federal Reserve rate. However, global analysts expect that the situation is changing for the worse. US GDP growth rates are starting to slow down. A one-quarter economic slowdown is unlikely to cause the Fed to reconsider its monetary policy stance. But in any case, weak macroeconomic data is unfavourable for the US dollar. That said, the dollar's decline is good news for assets denominated in it. In this context, XAU/USD could return to around 2386.70. | |||||
The eurozone. Inflation rate | DATE 31.05 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European economy is not in its best shape. Since the beginning of the year, GDP has shown a near-zero growth rate. At the same time, the economy has been seriously burdened by a high inflation rate for a long time. However, the trend has recently reversed, and price pressures are gradually easing toward the ECB's target. Global analysts expect inflation to remain largely unchanged at 2.5%. The inflation rate is central to the European regulator's monetary policy decisions, so the fact that inflation has stopped falling means the ECB can't switch to monetary easing. That said, the high interest rate is favourable for the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD may roll back to around 1.0900. | |||||
