03.04.23 - 07.04.23
Results of the previous week
| BABA +4.53% | XAGUSD +3.28% | COCOA +1.78% |
NG -4.02% | TF -2.33% | HG -1.16% |
Weak macroeconomic statistics from the US prevented American indices from developing an upward momentum, even though insufficiently strong reports fuelled expectations that the US Federal Reserve wouldn't hike rates too aggressively. As a result, they traded mixed last week. In addition, the upcoming corporate earnings season, which starts in late April, was a constraining factor.
The forex market also had a mixed performance. The dollar's fall at the beginning of the week was replaced by a correction largely due to technical factors, as the dollar doesn't have many reasons to strengthen right now.
After OPEC+ decided to cut production until the end of 2023, Brent oil prices had a stellar gap-up opening to around $85.00 a barrel. That said, it spent the rest of the week within a narrow range. This time, constraining factors were fears about demand prospects amid a slowdown in major economies due to rate hikes by central banks.
Key events of the current week
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 12.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The recent macroeconomic data from the US can hardly be called positive. The data indicate a slight cooldown in the country's economy. The US service sector PMI dropped to 51.2 in March, new jobless claims increased, and a gradual decrease in price pressure can be seen. However, the latter is expected to drop below 6%, although the current figures are still significantly above the Fed's target level. An insufficiently strong economy and weakening inflation could result in the US Federal Reserve raising rates less aggressively, which would benefit stock indices.The high-tech Nasdaq (NQ) could target a move towards 13,693.00 (an 8-month high). | |||||
The US. US Federal Reserve meeting minutes | DATE 12.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The Federal Reserve has already hiked its key interest rate nine times, taking it to the highest level since 2006. At the end of its last meeting, it stated that a further rate increase might be appropriate as it aims to return inflation to the 2% mark and achieve maximum employment. However, the regulator is clearly signalling that it'll keep an eye on macroeconomic data and is ready to adjust its plans accordingly. As such, markets will actively track the Fed's meeting minutes for any hints of a sentiment change for the regulator. Signs of the US central bank easing up amid insufficiently positive recent statistics may put pressure on the dollar.In this scenario, we could see the Fibre trying to break the 1.1000 level. | |||||
US. Retail sales | DATE 14.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
High prices impact consumer activity. Retail sales are in a downtrend, and this rate of decline is expected to accelerate, which is bad news for the US economy. However, if the report meets forecasts, it'll only strengthen expectations that the US Federal Reserve won't raise rates as quickly as it did before. These expectations are also harmful to the dollar but benefit its opponents. In this scenario, we could see GBP/USD rise to somewhere around 1.2525. | |||||
