09.09.24 - 13.09.24
Results of the previous week
| XAGUSD +10.27 | COFFEE +9.62% | NQ +6.23% |
VIX -12.15% | MRNA -8.91% | USDJPY -1.24% |
Last week, US indices rose to recover after a correction. One of the key support factors for the indices was the decline in the US inflation rate to 2.5%. This increased the likelihood of the Fed cutting rates at both its September meeting and at least one more time before the end of 2024.
On the foreign exchange market, the dollar showed a mixed trend. This is partly due to macroeconomic statistics that increase the likelihood of a rate cut by the US Federal Reserve. After the ECB's decision to significantly ease its monetary policy, the euro managed to rise in the last two business days of the week. The rate cut gave hope that the economy would start to improve.
Brent prices fell to $68.67 (the lowest since December 2021) at the beginning of the week but recovered from those losses by the end of the week to return to $72.60. Concerns about demand from China and the US and excessive oil supply by non-OPEC+ countries are exerting pressure on the energy resource. However, the hurricane raging in the Gulf of Mexico led to the evacuation of platforms, which may reduce production at these sites by 50,000 barrels per day.
Key events of the current week
The US. Retail Sales | DATE 17.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption is an important indicator of the nation's economic health. In the US, retail sales have shown a relatively steady positive trend in recent months. However, according to the expectations of global analysts, the growth rate of the indicator will slightly slow down in the reporting period. With the markets waiting for the US Fed rate cut, such dynamics are negative for the dollar, as they increase the probability of additional monetary policy easing. Against this backdrop, the USD/JPY pair is able to continue to move towards the low it saw in December 2023, 140.25. | |||||
The US Federal Reserve's rates decision | DATE 18.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Inflation in the US is gradually declining, approaching the target level set by the US regulator. According to the latest data, the figure was 2.5%. Markets and global analysts expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 basis points at its coming meeting. Markets have already baked this decision into prices. As a result, the post-meeting press conference held by Fed representatives will be of much more interest. Given the signs of the US economy's gradual cooling, there may be hints that the regulator will cut the rate one or two more times before the end of the year. This is bad news for the dollar but favourable for assets denominated in it, such as gold.Against this backdrop, XAU/USD may renew its all-time high, rising to 2600.00. | |||||
Bank of England rates decision | DATE 19.09 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
In the UK, inflation has almost reached the Bank of England's target level. This allows the regulator to act quite decisively to ease the country's monetary policy. Global analysts expect the Bank of England to keep its key interest rate unchanged at its upcoming meeting. There are certain signs of economic stabilisation that allow the regulator to take a pause in rate cuts. While the economy's growth rate is still around zero, the country's industrial and service sectors' PMIs have shown fairly stable growth. In addition, the UK's unemployment rate has fallen slightly. Keeping the interest rate unchanged is favourable for the British pound. Against this background, the GBP/USD pair may continue to rise towards 1.3230. | |||||
