05.02.24 - 09.02.24
Results of the previous week
| BRN+4.39% | TF +3.77% | XAGUSD+2.38% |
NG -13.08% | VIX -4.65% | CORN -2.85% |
US indices have shown positive sentiment. The S&P 500 reached an all-time high, surpassing the 5,000.00 mark. The financial reports of the largest companies and statements from Fed representatives are supporting indices. For example, Neel Kashkari said he expects two or three rate cuts this year. Monetary policy easing for the real sector is a positive factor.
The forex market saw mixed dynamics again. The dollar strengthened against the yen and remained stable against the British pound and the euro. At this stage, the dynamics are determined by the assessment of central banks' sentiments regarding monetary policy. The Bank of Japan is still keeping its ultra-low rates. And the Bank of England makes it clear that, despite signs of an economic cooldown, it isn't ready to cut rates yet.
Brent oil prices are attempting to gain a foothold above $80 a barrel, with prices reaching as high as $81.88. The rise in energy prices is due to the continuing tensions in the Middle East following Israel's rejection of Hamas' ceasefire offer.
Key events of the current week
Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 13.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Germany's GDP is declining. Moreover, for two quarters in a row, the indicator showed a drop, which indicates that the economy has entered a technical recession. In this environment, entrepreneurs and analysts aren't optimistic. However, signs of weakness in the largest economy in the eurozone are pushing the ECB to start easing its monetary policy, and these expectations are helping to improve economic sentiment. The shift of expectations about the economy to more positive ground is supporting the euro. Based on the good report from the ZEW Institute, EUR/USD could return to 1.0840. | |||||
The US. Inflation rate | DATE 13.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
US inflation stopped decreasing. Against this background and signs of economic stability, the US Federal Reserve changed its rhetoric regarding its monetary policy. Global analysts were expecting a rate cut in March 2024, but the expectations have shifted to May 2024 after the regulator's representatives announced that they aren't in a rush to ease monetary policy. According to the forecasts of major analytical agencies, inflation in the US will hold at 3.4%, which will once again confirm the correctness of the Fed's attitude towards its key interest rate.This is a positive signal for the dollar, but dollar-denominated assets remain under pressure in such a scenario. XAU/USD may retrace to the 2,005.00 level. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 14.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The UK economy has seen better days. This is forcing the Bank of England to consider a rate cut. But inflation in the UK is high, double the target set by the regulator. And that's why, at the end of its last meeting, the Governor of the Bank of England said the regulator is not currently in a place to start easing monetary policy. That's why the inflation report remains in the spotlight. Global analysts predict that the indicator will rise again. This will re-confirm that the Bank of England has no grounds to cut its rate. That will be good news for the pound, In such a scenario, we could see GBP/USD rise to somewhere around 1.2700. | |||||
