13.04.26 - 17.04.26
Results of the previous week
| AMC +29.66% | NQ +4.18% | NG +3.42% |
COFFEE -4.05% | PA -3.04% | BRN -2.36% |
Last week, US indices began to rise again. In addition, the S&P 500 and Nasdaq have set all-time highs. Optimism about the conflict in the Middle East grew after US President Donald Trump announced that Israel and Lebanon had reached a 10-day ceasefire agreement. Markets are also waiting for a new round of talks between the US and Iran. This has become a primary growth driver.
In the forex market, the dollar mostly remained under pressure. The closed Strait of Hormuz has significantly reduced oil supplies in the global market. When considering that most oil trades are conducted in dollars, it reduces demand for the US currency.
By the end of the week, Brent crude oil prices had fallen to around $89.00 a barrel. During the ceasefire between Israel and Lebanon, Iran has opened the Strait of Hormuz for commercial shipping. and negatively affected oil prices.
Key events of the current week
| Germany's ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment EUR/USD | DATE 21.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy remains weak. Moreover, high energy prices are driving up inflation, which is putting additional pressure on the country's economy. Some large companies have carried out big layoffs. In these circumstances, global analysts expect economic sentiment to decline. The decline in macroeconomic indicators is a worrying sign, especially since higher inflation will prevent the ECB from cutting rates to stimulate GDP growth. That's bad news for the euro. EUR/USD could briefly drop to 1.1700. | |||||
| The US. Retail sales XAU/USD | DATE 21.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Despite the tense geopolitical situation, the US economy is currently performing relatively well. However, rising energy prices have sent fuel prices at gas stations soaring, which could lead to increased inflation and a corresponding decline in consumer activity. Global analysts expect US retail sales growth to slow down. At the same time, rising inflation will keep the Federal Reserve from cutting its key interest rate, despite a slight cooling in key indicators. This means the monetary policy easing cycle will continue to be stalled. Given the current conflict in the Middle East, expectations for the Fed's decisions will remain secondary to signs of a cooling US economy. This is a negative sign for the dollar. In this context, gold (XAU/USD) could rise to 4840.00. | |||||
| The UK. Inflation rate GBP/USD | DATE 22.04 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The conflict in the Middle East isn't slowing down. The Strait of Hormuz remains closed to most vessels, which is negatively impacting oil and liquefied natural gas supplies in the global market. This is leading to rising energy prices, which are also factored into the prices of other goods and services. Against this backdrop, global analysts expect UK inflation to increase significantly. Rising inflation will prevent the Bank of England from cutting its key interest rate to stimulate economic growth. The Bank of England's continued tight monetary policy is good news for the pound. In this context, GBP/USD could rise to 1.3650. | |||||
