10.06.24 - 14.06.24
Results of the previous week
| VIX +10.74 | COCOA +10.25% | NQ +3.20% |
BA -7.02% | NG -5.57% | PA -2.46% |
Last week, US stocks demonstrated mixed dynamics. The Nasdaq and S&P 500 have hit new highs as the tech sector continues to rally. However, the Dow Jones fell as it reacted to the US Federal Reserve's decision to keep its rather aggressive position on monetary policy. The regulator announced that it considers it important to maintain the current inflation trend, which, in essence, served as confirmation that the Federal Reserve isn't in a hurry to lower its key interest rate.
In the forex market, the US dollar strengthened, which was unsurprising. The Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy is helping it. The euro had its own reasons for falling. The European parliamentary elections were a fiasco for ruling parties. As a result, the President of France even announced snap elections in the country. Naturally, amidst this political uncertainty, the euro found itself under pressure.
Brent crude oil prices managed to gain a foothold above $80.00 per barrel. The energy resource was buoyed by forecasts of stable global demand. According to OPEC's June report, global oil demand is still expected to increase by 2.25 million barrels per day in 2024. Goldman Sachs predicts that demand for fuel in the United States will remain stable this summer.
Key events of the current week
Germany. ZEW Indicator of Economic Sentiment | DATE 18.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Since November 2023, Germany's GDP has seen negative growth rates year over year, which indicates an economic recession. High inflation and the ECB's tight monetary policy played a large part in pressuring the country's economy. However, price pressure in Germany has begun to fall in recent months, which has made it possible for economic sentiment to improve. The ZEW Institute's indicator has exited negative territory and continued to grow. During the reporting period, however, global analysts expect the indicator to fall. This is an unfavourable sign for the European currency. Against this backdrop, the Fibre could continue down to somewhere around 1.0610. | |||||
The US. Retail sales | DATE 18.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Domestic consumption is an important indicator for the United States' service-orientated economy. The latest US GDP data showed that growth slowed to 1.3% in Q2. Price pressure has also fallen somewhat. The indicator still isn't low enough for the US Federal Reserve to lower interest rates. High inflation affects domestic consumption indicators. Global analytical agencies forecast a slight slowdown in retail sales growth rates during the reporting period. This is unfavourable for the dollar since weak macroeconomic indicators bring the start of monetary policy softening closer. In this context, USD/JPY could resume its downward movement toward 156.40. | |||||
The UK. Inflation rate | DATE 19.06 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The inflation rate in the United Kingdom continues to drop. It's worth noting that the report is being released right before a Bank of England meeting. According to released forecasts, price pressure will fall to the British regulator's target level. It could also change the sentiments of Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) members by increasing the number of supporters who would lower the rate. This is unfavourable for the pound, especially with the US Federal Reserve maintaining its hawkish monetary policy. Against this background, GBP/USD may continue to decline toward 1.2600. | |||||
