26.02.24 - 01.03.24
Results of the previous week
| NG+8.19 | XAUUSD +2.57% | NQ+2.06% |
SUGAR -5.15% | VIX -1.75% | NZDUSD -1.14% |
American indexes have stabilized close to earlier maximums. One factor restraining further upward movement is the market's anticipations regarding US Federal Reserve monetary policy. The latest inflation data have pushed back the time when the American regulator may lower rates. And the longer rates stay high, the harder things will be for the real sector.
On the currency markets, the dollar has strengthened moderately against most major currencies. The only exception is the Japanese yen. It has received support from comments made by a member of the Bank of Japan's board. Hajime Takata's remark that there are strong arguments for a rate rise boosted both Japanese public bonds and the yen.
Prices for Brent crude sank to around 80.18, but subsequently recovered and ended the week around 83.00. The Middle East conflict is still a long way from de-escalation. And the OPEC+ countries remain willing to keep the current rate of output reduction going until the end of the year. At the same time, US oil reserves are increasing and production is at record levels, which lowers the fear of a shortfall on the market.
Key events of the current week
The US. Services PMI | DATE 05.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The service sector makes up the majority of US GDP. That is why the report on business activity in the sector is attracting close attention. Even though the Fed has kept rates at a high level for a substantial period, the US economy overall is demonstrating a fair degree of stability. But world analysts forecast that activity in services will decline somewhat, albeit remaining above 50 – the level that separates growth from contraction. The decline in a key indicator is negative for the dollar. Against this background, the USDJPY currency pair may fall to around 148.90. | |||||
ECB rates decision | DATE 07.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The European regular has held rates steady at 4.5% through its last four sessions. This is no surprise given the Eurozone's continuing high level of inflation: according to the latest data, the indicator stands at 2.6%. At the same time the economies of the monetary bloc's major countries, especially Germany, are experiencing evident difficulties including those caused by the high cost of borrowing. ECB representatives therefore indicated following the most recent session that they are prepared to consider cutting rates in the near future. Hints that the regulator may take this step as early as April are negative for the euro.Against this background, the EURUSD currency pair may return to around 1.0740. | |||||
The US. Non-farm payrolls | DATE 08.03 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US labour market appears stable. Unemployment remains very low. And the nation's economy is creating new jobs. In the last four months, the number of new jobs outside the farming sector has exceeded expectations. In this period, world analysts anticipate that the rate of job creation will slow down. For the Fed, this is a signal that the economy is reacting to the current high level of interest rates. It adds to expectations that the Federal Reserve will decide on a rate cut before the middle of the year, which is negative for the dollar. It is positive, however, for dollar-denominated assets. These include gold. Against this background, XAUUSD may continue to strengthen and reach around 2100,00. | |||||
![Fed prepared to keep interest rates high [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_2090820298_10.jpg?itok=MLSebahw)
![Powell doesn't give timeline for a rate cut [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_2030743190_18.jpg?itok=A_b2GPIa)
