19.02.24 - 23.02.24
Results of the previous week
| COCOA+19.02% | NG +14.56% | YM+1.10% |
HO -6.65% | VIX -3.66% | COFFEE -3.37% |
US indices have been trading mixed. Earlier in the week, markets declined amidst previous reports of a rise in the core producer price index, which once again delayed the start of rate cuts. However, by the end of the work week, they had returned to growth and even to previous highs. Support came from individual companies' earning reports and signs that the economy is not yet suffering from high interest rates.
Despite the fact that the US Federal Reserve confirmed that it's in no hurry to cut rates, the dollar declined against most of its major opponents. This was largely due to the reaction to PMI data. The euro, in particular, was supported by a strong report from France. The pound showed optimism amid signs that the British economy is stabilising.
Brent crude oil prices held in a range between $81.20 and $83.30. However, most of the week, it moved towards its lower boundary. The energy resource continues to be influenced by two factors: increased US stocks, which put pressure on prices, and hopes that the balance between supply and demand will change amid reduced global supply due to the escalation of conflict in the Middle East.
Key events of the current week
The US. Durable goods orders | DATE 27.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
Durable goods orders are an important indicator of the health of the US economy because it allows us to assess the prospects for the country's industrial sector, investments, and the willingness of businesses and households to make large expenditures. According to forecasts from global analysts, the indicator will see a fairly sharp decline. That's bad news for the US economy. Amid signs that the economy is cooling, expectations that the US Federal Reserve will cut interest rates will intensify, which is negative for the dollar. In this scenario, USD/JPY may decline to 149.00. | |||||
The US. GDP growth rate | DATE 28.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The US economy is in pretty good shape. The GDP growth rate is quite high despite the US Federal Reserve's tight monetary policy. At the same time, if we look at inflation, we shouldn't expect a significant reduction in interest rates in the near future. According to the latest data, inflation is rising at the producer level, which reduces the likelihood of the Fed easing its monetary policy in the near future. Stable GDP growth rates in the US only reinforce these expectations. That's good news for the US dollar. Against this backdrop, it's gaining against most of its opponents. For example, the GBP/USD pair may decline to around 1.2520 on the back of a strong US GDP report. | |||||
Germany. Unemployment figures | DATE 29.02 | GMT | FORECAST | PREV. | IMPORTANCE |
The German economy continues to weaken. Moreover, the economy is in recession, as evidenced by three consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth rates. In recent months, a trend of slower industrial production has emerged in the country, with many companies curtailing or reducing production, leading to rising unemployment in the region. Global analysts expect Germany's unemployment rate to rise in the reporting period. That's bad news for the euro. Against this backdrop, EUR/USD may decline to around 1.0740. | |||||
![Will the Fed change its tone following US inflation data? [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/default_images/economyc-indicators-2_5.jpg?itok=VgszlnhU)
![A Surprise from the Bank of Japan [Weekly digest]](/sites/default/files/styles/image_300x120/public/news/shutterstock_1590824863_10.jpg?itok=A1Pu4pUd)
