USD/JPY waiting for the permutations to play out

By this time tomorrow morning we shall know if the Bank of Japan has decided to raise its 0.25% OCR (Official Cash Rate) or not. The consensus is that they will keep interest rates on hold. Therefore the risk is they do not and that surely explains why the rally in the USD/JPY (to a high at 154.47 on Monday) has now given way to some downside and profit-taking on Dollar longs. The low seen yesterday was set at 153.16 after the European close. The USD/JPY later lifted into the US close, ending last night at 153.46. The price action so far today has been covered by 153.34 to 153.79. As mentioned earlier in the week, there is still the prospect of the Fed lowering rates by 0.25% tonight and the BOJ raising by the same amount tomorrow. Of course that would have a negative impact on the USD/JPY, but this is not seemingly going to be the case. The other thing to factor in here is; despite the Fed almost certain to lower rates tonight, the outlook for them to be on hold after that is very live right now and that explains why US yields have been rising in recent days. All of that will be revealed at 7pm GMT this evening. Meantime, the USD/JPY watches and waits, currently trading at 153.41