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The minutes from the last (November 1) US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee (FOMC) meeting to decide on monetary policy have just been released. The markets were not expecting too much in the way of any surprise from the detail of these minutes, but the bias, where there was one, was on the hawkish side of neutral. That prospect had helped the dollar to rebound in the 2-3 hours leading up to this release. Notwithstanding that, the markets had been bringing forward the timing of the first Fed rate cut, to March next year. It was that which had definitely played a role in the weakening the dollar over the past week or so. Well, the immediate take-away from these minutes is a clear data dependent approach from the Fed and there is plenty to suggest the Fed is still on a vigilant watch. The reaction in the markets has not seen the dollar drop much so far and the USD/JPY is still towards the upper end of its range and close to the highs it reached ahead of the Fed minutes, but perhaps there is not enough meat in all this to push it beyond 148.50. We shall see as the evening wears on. The USD/JPY is currently trading at 148.38
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