USD/JPY rebounds from a monthly close below 150

The USD/JPY hit a new interim low on Friday, at 149.47. It later closed out the month in the US at 149.77. It was not technically positive close either. Given the slide in US yields on Friday it was also slightly surprising the dollar did not actually fall further, especially after rejecting a rebound above its 200 day moving average (then at 152.00) on Thursday. The rebound from the September low at 139.58, to the November high at 156.75 already met a final Fibonacci correction level, as noted here at the time. So, you can see how it has resumed the down trend since. The question now is as follows- is this current wave lower a correction of the prior rebound, or resumption of the wider downside trend?  Not easy to assess right now. There will be much to add on that though, in the run up to the BOJ policy meeting later this month. In the meantime, we have technical supports at 149.06 (100 day moving average) and 148.17 and 146.14. On the topside that 200 day moving average (now at 151.99) is still capping the dollar. However the dollar has bounced today. The range seen so far has been covered by 149.51 to 150.75. The high fell just short of the current 50 day moving average (150.85). It has backed away from the earlier high now, currently trading at 150.30