USD/CAD fall masks employment report outlook

Since failing to rise above 1.39 on Wednesday, the USD/CAD has fallen back steeply. The USD/CAD peaked at 1.3899 and fell back to 1.3728 a little earlier this morning, from a close last night at 1.3739. Now later today it is not just the US October jobs report that is in focus, because we will get the same from Canada. That is due out at 12.30pm GMT and the forecasts are not that good. The markets expect payrolls to have risen by around 25k, compared to a 63.8K gain in September. The unemployment rate is expected to rise to 5.6% from 5.5%. Of course the recent drop in the USD/CAD has been mostly about the US dollar and therein lies the rub, because if this Canadian jobs report is weak, then a different dynamic might unfold. However, as always, the USD/CAD price action will have to contend with the US data being released at exactly the same time and that makes the immediate reaction rapid and often confusing. There will be more to add later, but for now the USD/CAD is near session lows. It will most definitely be in the spotlight at 12.30pm GMT. It is just now trading at 1.3740