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US PCE data in focus for the Dow Jones later today

The charge higher in the US equity futures after the closing bell built on a rebound yesterday ahead of the close. Prior to that the Dow Jones had fallen by more than 700 points from where it had closed on Wednesday evening (38,460). The low seen was set at 37,754. The rebound that fellowed saw it recover a good deal of that earlier fall, when closing at 38,085, The post close rise after the Q1 results from Microsoft and Alphabet delivered a rise to above 38,200. This rebound has lagged the gains seen in there Nasdaq 100 futures, which is pretty understandable given that it was led by two tech giants, notwithstanding that Microsoft is a leading Dow Jones component (no.3 by index weight). The odds of the US CPI data beating forecasts today remain live and that is a data point that will impact the price action of the Dow futures ahead of the opening. Given the Q1 data released on that yesterday, a beat in the March data looks almost a given, but not 100% guaranteed. So, the Dow Jones future is going to move when that data arrives at 12.30pm GMT. The annualised core deflator reading of this PCE data is forecast to rise by 2.7%, compared to a 2.8% rise in February. Anything above 3%, or below 2.5% and we are for sure going to get some price action in the Dow Jones futures, which are right now pricing the reopening at around 38,135
 

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