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Understanding why the BOJ is Jaw-boning near 152 USD/JPY

As you all know by now, recently the Bank of Japan has been extremely active vocally in expressing its concerns about the exchange rate. In fact it is not just the BOJ that has been attempting to Jawbone the dollar lower and preventing it from rising above 152. The MOF and even the Japanese Prime minister has joined in on this. So, why is that 152 level seemingly important and why not 155 or even 160? Well, in an attempt to answer that we can look at the longer-term chart of the USD/JPY, to try and gauge the technical upside potential from the current levels. The USD/JPY topped out at 151.95 in October 2022. The fall that followed saw it drop to a low at 127.23 in January 2023. That was bang on a key 50% correction of the move that had started at 102.59 in January 2021 and had subsequently extended to 151.95. The fall to 127.23 was surely a longer term wave 2 correction and the risk of this current wave 3 rising significantly above 151.95 is what seems to have prompted the BOJ into vocal action right now. So, if the BOJ does not get in the way of this, the upside potential for the dollar is substantial and significantly more than wave 1 (102.59-151.95). So as a minimum target on that you would add at the very least 50 Yen onto 127.23. So, now you might see why the BOJ is squawking about the Yen right now. The USD/JPY has not changed much since the last update here earlier today, currently trading at 151.37 
 

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