Trump just upped the ante on US recession risk and the S+P 500 knows it

There can be little doubt the impact of the sweeping US trade tariff measures last night has sent shockwaves around the markets. The risks of a US recession must now be even more elevated following this news. Now, previously you were advised about a call on that from Goldman Sachs. They increased that risk to 35% from 20%. So, it will be interesting to see how they react to this news and if they raise that risk again. Also to note; that risk was always deemed modest here and in truth it would be no surprise to now see calls well above 50% soon. Well, of course the US equity futures have wasted no time in reacting to all this. Previously you were warned on the outlook for the S+P 500 in a two part update noting the risks of a deeper corrective fall and no surprise for you to see that endorsed again this morning. The S+P 500 closed last night before all this news impacted the index. The S+P 500 closed at 5,670.97 and the futures did initially spike higher on the tariff news, but as warned, that was not necessarily the right reaction. The low opening call since then has seen the index priced to open later today as low as 5,440. It is currently priced to reopen around 5,493