So what will really surprise the markets and the dollar this week when it comes to Fed policy?

In an attempt to answer the headline question here, the obvious would seem to be if the Fed raises its Fed Funds rate again. Such an outcome is not widely expected at 6pm GMT on Wednesday evening. The current consensus is for the Fed to hold the funds rate at between 5.25% and 5.50%. Perhaps if the Fed were to remain on hold, with a firm hawkish statement that could have an impact too, as would the opposite apply in the other direction for the dollar in particular. Ahead what outcome we might get, I note a warning just now from the BIS (Bank for International Settlements). That is the Central Banks Bank if you want to call it that. They have just expressed concern over the significant build up in short leveraged US treasury positions. That is players being synthetically short (via the futures) of the US bond market. If the Fed surprises with a hike, then the BIS will be proved wrong and yields will rise and perhaps the dollar too (provided the Fed does not do as the ECB last week and signal an end to such moves). If not, then the BIS can say that at least they warned us all