One week to go now before its make or break for the USD/JPY

On March 19 the Bank of Japan will unveil its most eagerly awaited monetary policy decision for several years. The markets now anticipate a change that could see the BOJ finally depart from their zero interest rate policy. The outcome of this is widely expected to see them raise their current -0.10% OCR (Official Cash Rate). So, much of the latest BOJ board member rhetoric has raised the prospect of that happening. That is why the USD/JPY fell back to a low of 146.49 on Friday. Of course, all the latest the US data and drop back in US yields played a major role too, but it is really all about the change in the Japanese monetary policy outlook that is the main driver. The USD/JPY came close to busting below its 200 day moving average on Friday (adjusted to 148.18 as of the close). There will be plenty to add on all this over the coming week. Quite simply, if the BOJ remains on hold then the current major double top at 151.95 and 151.91 will be put to the test. Conversely and depending on how aggressive is any change, then the December 2023 low at 140.25 will be well and truly back on the radar. Another update on the price action so far today will follow shortly