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Multiple failures above 1.36 in USD/CAD warns of exhaustion

As covered here yesterday, the USD/CAD balked above 1.36 once again. In fact it set in place a triple top at 1.3614. The refusal of the US dollar to get above that level and a series of further resistance levels (noted here) just above there was its undoing yesterday. The higher Canadian January GDP data released yesterday was the nail in the coffin in that regard. The drop back in the USD/CAD that followed that data saw it fall to a low at 1.3525. It later closed in the US at 1.3540, which was just above its 21 day moving average (now in place at 1.3536). So, we know where all the topside resistance levels are in place right now, but what about support? Well, the first of those, below 1.3536 is at 1.3507 (50 day moving average) and then at 1.3496 (100 day) and finally at 1.3496 (200 day). So, as you can see, they are all clustered pretty close together around that 1.35 price level. Now of course, if the US PCE data is above forecasts later today, the US dollar might rebound, but if the opposite is revealed, then that exhaustion above 1.36 may deliver a deeper move to the downside and take out those support levels. The USD/CAD range seen so far today has been covered by 1.3532 to 1.3561. It is currently trading at 1.3551

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