Maybe the most important US jobs report for a long while- S+P 500 in the spotlight

At 12.30pm GMT this afternoon the US will release, what is arguably the most important monthly jobs report for a long time, so we look at what is expected from that data. The last US non farm payroll gain was 228k. It is expected to be running at a lower level in April. A gain of around 138k is expected. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain steady, at 4.2%. Well, given all the latest data on claims, JOLTS and the like it could be argued that a gain of 138k today is rather ambitious. That said, many analysts believe that the acid test for US jobs will come in June or July and it might be too early so see anything really bad. Well, that is a sound argument, but not one to guarantee a good number later today. What is clear right now though; any real surprise is going to throw up some volatile moves, be that on the dollar or stocks. Last night the S+P 500 did surpass the noted technical level, at 5,646.10 (5,658.91 the high), but it did not close above that and fell back to end the session 35.08 points higher, at 5,604.14, as noted here after the closing bell. That marked an eighth day of successive higher closes. So, will there be a ninth today? Possibly not, but the jobs report will almost certainly have a major say in that later on. The index is right now priced to reopen around 5,620