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ISM service sector index in the spotlight later today- USD index (USDX) part 2

Following immediately from the previous part 1 update on the dollar index, here is some more detail and insight. As covered here earlier today, the rise in the dollar later on Friday was all about yields and an endorsement of market thinking about upcoming Fed monetary policy. The US jobs data on Friday has led many analysts to conclude; there is no chance whatsoever for a Fed rate cut this Wednesday (6pm GMT), especially with price pressure still clearly in place and no sign yet of employment falling off a cliff. However, the prospect of more uncertainty on that is obvious, given the Trump tariff moves. Meantime, Trump keeps screaming at the Fed to cut, but US Central Bank seems hard of hearing, as indeed they should be. What is really interesting though; US stocks have rebounded incredibly well over the past two weeks, but not so the dollar. The reason for that was mentioned here before. The really big money flow will not jump back to the dollar in the same way as stocks have and that remains a drag overall and hence why the dollar index is only off the lows, but yet to really recover much of the ground it lost in April. The US ISM data today could have a bearing on whether or not that remains the case. The dollar index peaked at exactly 100 earlier this morning, before falling back to 99.60. It is on the rebound a bit now though, currently trading around 99.80
 

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