Important update on Quick News later today- US Retail sales and the EUR/USD in focus

As just mentioned in the previous update on the USD/CAD, there will be no Quick News updates from this analyst from 9.30am GMT onwards today until early tomorrow morning. This is due to technical reasons and so we will try to cover as much as we can beforehand. The main US data release later today is the March retail sales report (12.30pm GMT) and that is expected to show sales rising strongly in March. Sales grew by just 0.2% in February. The markets are expecting a rise of 1.3% in March. Now there is good reason for that and it is all about an anticipated rush to buy goods before some of those suffer tariff impacted price rises. So, do not be surprised if that sales number beats forecasts for that reason. However, even if it does the markets may well look through that, for the reasons just mentioned. Conversely, if sales miss forecasts the dollar will not react well to that. The US currency has already taken a hit today and that has seen the EUR/USD rise to 1.1385 earlier. The outlook remains negative here and as you saw last night the way forward is still to buy this one on dips, unless or until anything materially changes on the macro outlook. The EUR/USD is right now at 1.1360