Here is what a major surprise is going to look like- USD/JPY edging towards 142 again

As this update is being typed, the USD/JPY is edging its way back towards the 142 handle. As also just noted in the previous update on the GBP/USD; that move in the dollar comes in part from some steady buying in the GBP/JPY this morning. Right now the markets are pricing the odds of a 0.50% rate reduction from the Fed this evening, at around 85% and that just seems crazy. The true odds are much more balanced than that. So, is the cash market getting ahead of itself as usual? If you look at the USD/JPY close to 142 this morning; that would surely belie what the money markets are now pricing in? It is often the case; that the spot FX market is more in tune with reality than the cash market anyway and this time that might be the case too. If the Fed is about to cut rates by 0.50%, then why is the USD/JPY where it is now? A good question perhaps and as noted here earlier today, we could get some fireworks in the USD/JPY tonight if that 0.50% fails to materialise. As also noted; whatever happens its going to be a wild ride this evening. The USD/JPY is right now trading at 141.97