GBP/USD falls below 1.2500 in Asian trading as UK retail sales loom this morning

Back on November 22 when the dollar surged and the EUR/USD crumbled to 1.0335, the GBP/USD fell to a fresh interim low at 1.2487. The rebound that followed saw it lift to1.2811, just short of the noted 200 day moving average, in place then at 1.2822. That was always going to be a tough level to break above and was never expected to do so here either. The reader was alerted to that outlook too. Well, the voting split on the MPC yesterday at 6-3 in favour of no cut from the BOE was the kicker for the rebound above 1.2650 to fall into the long grass. Further dollar strength since then has pushed the Pound below that November 22 low during the Asian session this morning. Perhaps it might even flip that whole rebound (from 1.2487 to 1.2811) around the other way? If it were to do that, it would imply a measured move to 1.2163 from here. We shall have to see about that and besides, more immediately we have some important UK sales data due out shortly this morning, at 7am GMT. This data is important in view of the impact the October 30 budget might have inflicted on activity. Sales fell by 0.7% in October and the markets are expecting a rebound of around 0.5% in November. If that bounce does not materialise it will not sit will with the Pound this morning. The GBP/USD has traded to 1.2476 earlier, it is right now at 1.2486