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Last Friday the GBP/USD fell to a low at 1.2559. That drop came as the dollar lifted and the EUR/USD fell below the 1.04 handle, basing at 1.0360. These moves were all due to the higher than forecast US PCE income data and the fact that the core price remained at 2.6%. Well, since then it has been an entirely different story for the US currency. There is simply too much to cover here to explain all that has happened since the last update here, but in essence the barrage of US news surrounding tariffs has been the driving force behind a significant weakening in the US currency. The news yesterday of a lower than forecast ADP number did the dollar more harm and even the better than forecast non-manufacturing ISM index yesterday did not help the US currency. So the Pound rose to its highest level of the year versus the dollar yesterday, reaching 1.2901 ahead of the close last night. That high came after a sustained break above the 200 day moving average (now at 1.2787), which started the day before and had led to a daily close above that level on Tuesday evening (now in place at 1.2788). The gap now between US and UK 10 year yields is a major driver behind all this price action too. The US 10 year note is now some 0.40% below that of the UK equivalent. The GBP/USD closed last night at 1.2895 and earlier today it reached a new 2025 high, at 1.2908. It has backed away from that since and traded down to 1.2883. However, it is currently on the rebound again, trading right now at 1.2901. The next stop 1.3000?
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