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Forget US stocks- it is all about the dollar reaction today- check out the USD Index (USDX)

As already noted here today, the NYSE is closed today, so there will be no trading in the major stock market indexes. That is rather confusing, because it is a public holiday generally in the US today, but not a Federal Holiday, so the US economic data releases will be sent out to the markets (those that are open of course). So, at 12.30pm GMT we get the very important US PCE data. Why is that data so important you might ask? Well, it is the preferred gauge of inflation for the US Federal Reserve and figures prominently in their assessment of where to set monetary policy. The markets expect this data to show a rise on the month and on an annualised basis. The forecast is for that to rise to 2.5%, from 2.4%. The core deflator is forecast to remain unchanged at 2.8%. Spending is also expected to increase and all of those components, if they emerge as forecast do not give rise to a need to immediately lower interest rates. That is the key for the dollar today and it will react to a surprise in either direction. So, the dollar index (USDX) rose to its best levels of the week yesterday, at 104.727. It did fall back from there, only to rise again into the US close (104.54). It has edged a bit higher so far today, reaching 104.67. There will be more to add on this later on ahead of that PCE data release 

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