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Dollar index (USDX) in the firing line from the Fed minutes this evening

At 7pm GMT the US Federal Reserve will release the minutes from the last FOMC policy meeting in December. I will be on hand then to report anything of significance to emerge from those minutes, but only if the detail that is revealed does shift the markets to any significant degree. So, some months back now, I noted the potential for the dollar to undergo a final quarter of weakness in 2023 and that is exactly what it did. The EUR/USD rose from a low of 1.0448 right at the start of Q4, to a high at 1.1139 set on December 28. That is an almost identical directional move to the one that played out in Q4 2022. The corresponding move in the dollar index (USDX) mirrored that of course. As you can see, the dollar has immediately bounced back at the start of Q1 2024. As to whether that delivers further gains by the end of Q1 is for you decide, but do not discount this quarterly cyclical price action, because I know it holds water, as I have been factoring it into my research for more than 30 years now. So, tonight could be important for the dollar, especially if those Fed minutes cast doubt over the shift in emphasis from the Fed boss, Jerome Powell last month. All to be revealed at 7pm GMT, or perhaps not. We shall see 
 

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