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AUD/USD on the rebound today

Looking at Australia, its economy and its overall debt and credit rating there appears to be a number of reasons to support the currency. First of all Australia is one of the few nations that still enjoys a AAA credit rating from the major agencies. Second it has a low debt to GDP ratio and one far below its G10 peers. Most immediately and thirdly, the fact that recent RBA rate cuts may now be drawing to an end is leading Australian bond yields above that on offer in the US. The 10 year note is now at 4.41% this morning compared to 4.19% right now in the US. All that said, the converse argument is the dependency of the Australian economy on China and Chinese exports. That makes it vulnerable to what happens with the Chinese economy. As for US trade tariffs it seems that Australia is pretty well placed with no auto industry to speak of. So, the AUD/USD seems to have a few things going for it right now? The AUD/USD is also very cheap by historical standards. Look at an ultra long-term chart and will see it is far below the 2011 high, when it traded above 1.10. The AUD/USD closed in the US last night at 0.6278. The high seen so far today has been set at 0.6302. The 50 day moving average is in place today at 0.6297 and the 100 day is at 0.6314. So, as you can see, it is toying with the first of those two this morning, currently at 0.6295
 

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