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All eyes are not just on US jobs today- check out the Dollar index (USDX) this morning

There is no evidence of any kind of negative surprise likely from the US monthly jobs report later today. That said, this data always has the potential to deliver a shock now and again. So, with that in mind let us have a look at what is expected at 12.30pm GMT today. The markets expect non-farm payrolls to rise by around 240k in April, down from the 303k rise seen in March. The unemployment rate is forecast to remain at 3.8%. As usual the level of average earnings will be a key component in this report and those are forecast to rise by around 4% on an annualised basis, slightly below the 4.1% rate seen last month. However, and unusually, today we also get the service sector ISM index being released on the same day as the monthly jobs report and that could have a major impact too. That is due out later at 2pm GMT. Ahead of all this the dollar is on the back foot this morning. The drive lower in the USD/JPY has been key to allowing another rebound in the GBP/USD and the EUR/USD. Hence, the dollar index (USDX) has fallen back, from a high yesterday at 105.90, to a low this morning at 105.18. Support at 105.00 has held so far though, but all this important US data due out to today will decide if that continues to do so 
 

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