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All bets are still on the table for the USD index (USDX) this evening

If I had a crystal ball, I could tell you exactly what the Fed will do and say this evening. Unfortunately, I do not have one of those. That said, many in the markets have already made their minds up it seems; that the Fed will remain on hold and potentially signal a halt to further tightening measures. Personally, I think that is a bit presumptuous. That is because there is simply no need for them to shut the door right now and besides the recent charge higher in oil prices (although lower today) would indicate there is every reason for them to remain vigilant, but we shall see later this evening. In that respect all bets would appear to be still on the table for the dollar index (USDX).  The index did drop below 105.00 yesterday but then rebounded to close at 105.13.  It has traded to as low as 105.04 so far today and earlier to as high as 105.25. It is well off those highs now and tracking back towards the lows again. A break above 105.43 does open the topside again, but a break below 104.60 could do the opposite. Hence, the dollar is still open to what the Fed has to throw at it later on 
 

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